[Danni Boatwright]

I'm very curious to see how Wardog and Reynold work together here. Wardog has had some low moments, so not really justified putting him here yet, but recently he has been playing *very* well, solidifying close bonds with Stephannie, Matt and Reynold and making the right, if not obvious move of just leaving Jess/Elizabeth behind after being blindsided. Reynold has stepped up a lot as of late and was in the war room for making the decision last night, even if he didn't get his way with Elizabeth. He seems to be getting more aggressive but isn't a target for it.

I think i'd feel way more comfortable ranking Wardog/Reynold above Jess if they weren't being used as backup target names last round. Maybe now that they've solidified a bond by voting together (and saving wardog in the process), they can get some momentum building. Similar to my thoughts on stephannie earlier in the game, I just want to see if it sustains. Like, now that Liz has a reason to be mad at the OG Pukoras, maybe Wardogs stock goes way up and he becomes a valuable ally? Idk. only time will tell.

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

I'm very curious to see how Wardog and Reynold work together here. Wardog has had some low moments, so not really justified putting him here yet, but recently he has been playing *very* well, solidifying close bonds with Stephannie, Matt and Reynold and making the right, if not obvious move of just leaving Jess/Elizabeth behind after being blindsided. Reynold has stepped up a lot as of late and was in the war room for making the decision last night, even if he didn't get his way with Elizabeth. He seems to be getting more aggressive but isn't a target for it.

I think i'd feel way more comfortable ranking Wardog/Reynold above Jess if they weren't being used as backup target names last round. Maybe now that they've solidified a bond by voting together (and saving wardog in the process), they can get some momentum building. Similar to my thoughts on stephannie earlier in the game, I just want to see if it sustains. Like, now that Liz has a reason to be mad at the OG Pukoras, maybe Wardogs stock goes way up and he becomes a valuable ally? Idk. only time will tell.

Yeah, I don't think those two deserve a slot here, they were just the two I thought were the most likely to break into the top 5 with some sustained success - ie, people to keep an eye on.

[John]

My top 5 winner picks are all on the Te Poto tribe now. Sherri/Matt/Stephannie/Reynold are all great individually, but letting War Dog go is going to bite them at the merge (still can't believe they didn't attempt to split the votes on Allie tonight).

Merge is going to have some real bad blood, going to be awesome to watch play out.

[Danni Boatwright]

My top 5 winner picks are all on the Te Poto tribe now. Sherri/Matt/Stephannie/Reynold are all great individually, but letting War Dog go is going to bite them at the merge (still can't believe they didn't attempt to split the votes on Allie tonight).

Merge is going to have some real bad blood, going to be awesome to watch play out.

Just me, watching all my faves crash and burn

[Danni Boatwright]

OOF THIS IS HARD TODAY!!! I know who my top 2 contenders are for sure, but after last night there's just a huge mess of people who I think are in a pickle. Honestly think that the chances of players like Sherri/Matt/Stephannie/Elizabeth/Allie depend on what direction Alexis/Michael decide to go come merge. If they decide to side with their OG Pukoras, I don't like the chances for Liz and Jess. If they decide to stick with Liz and utilize their partnerships, I think Sherri and co are screwed. Then there's all the middle of the road players like Allie/Reynold/Tai/Shamar/Rocker who could swoop in and find power now that the big dogs all hate each other.

Don't get me wrong, I like that the power dynamics going into the merge are going to be shaky. It makes for an interesting season and will be fun to watch. Just makes it hard to write a blog about future prospects

1-Michael gets the top spot today despite a horrid round for the big players in the game. He is solidly aligned with Matt/Alexis/Sherri, and then separately with Jess, and isn't really catching flack for his position. He's the middle man in the Alexis/Jess feud on Te Poto, but is making sure to appease both women so he has options at the merge. I think he's going to be the least likely person targeted at the merge, and I have the most confidence in his ability to put together a strong group once he gets there.

2-Alexis is basically just getting ranked here because she didn't do anything egregious this round? Idk her thing with Jess scares me a bit, but Michael is giving Alexis information on what Jess is saying. On the other side of that argument, Michael is holding information back from Jess, which indicates to me that he is more invested in Alexis making it far. I think the Liz connection will be big for Alexis as well, and if she can use it properly she will have a funnel of information come merge. She's gonna piss a lot of people off when she needs to make a choice between her two groups of allies, and I'm interested to see how that plays out.

3-Stephannie is in a weird spot. I don't think it was smart of her to cut Wardog, but I think of the players on pukora she'll face the least amount of consequences for the past two rounds. I'm really hoping that Tai is able to survive to merge, and that the two of them can reconnect, as I think he would be a valuable number for her moving forward. If she didn't have such a key connection in the game (who others are basically just counting out) I think she would be lower on my list. but this list is also shaky AF right now because Liz is shaking up everything I thought I knew.

4-Matt is dropping for me fast, especially if he can't do damage control for the past two rounds. Currently the rumor mill is making him out to be Missy's puppet for voting out Jed, and now he's at odds with Liz, who is feeding Michael and Alexis bad information about Matt/Sherri. If he can course correct and smooth things over with Alexis and Michael, I think he stands a good chance of regaining some power. If Liz has already tainted them too much, I think he'll struggle through the merge.

5-I wasn't sure who to rank here, as I think there is a large group of people who are playing safe right now (and its to their benefit, imo). I want to talk about Allie and Reynold in that group because i think they have the most to talk about seeing as they've been to the last three tribals? Allie is in a weird spot because she's basically fighting for her life on Pukora. She only made it past last night because people were worried Liz would play an idol on Allie, which proved to be false. I think if she can survive to merge and get together with Liz/Jess/Aurora as planned, she probably has a chance to make it far. But her positioning is precarious. On the other hand, Reynold is in a pretty solid spot on Pukora but made the boneheaded move of taking out Wardog, who was loyal to him. He was clearly prophetic in his push to take Liz out over Jed, but all his talk about things going to plan makes me think he's not 100% sure what he's doing. I think Reynold has a chance to do well if his alliance can woo Alexis and Matt come merge, but realistically he'll probably be a decoy idol boot at some point in the merge.

Honorable Mentions:

Shamar/Hope/Rocker- All three of them have been pretty inoffensive on Te Poto and honestly at this point, being inoffensive may just mean they outlast all the rabid players who are losing their minds right now. I was very tempted to rank them above Allie and Reynold because there was less of a chance of them going home before merge, but I just didn't know what I'd say about their games individually? If we're expecting a Tanz-esque ending to the season where the big players go out back to back to back come merge, then I wouldn't be surprised to see one of these three rise up and take the reigns.

LOL

Liz- This bitch is good TV. She can't help but draw attention to herself, and with her public idol STILL in her pocket, she has basically ensured she makes her first merge. She won't go deep without a hell of a lot of work, but I guess I shouldn't say she has a 0% shot of winning. Most likely trajectory is that she's an early merge boot who drags down a couple of the big players who turned on her.


I have a strong feeling that this list will change again by tomorrow, but for now that's all I've got.

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

Danni has been slacking!!!

I'll give my thoughts here into F11

1. Matt - back at the top after surviving the initial anti-Pukaroa 3.0 purge. He continues to show a master class in UTR social game, doing a great job of attributing targeting. Has some incredibly loyal allies in Sherri/Steph that are also shields, and people on the other side like Mike/Jess really want to continue working with him. He isn't going home any time soon.
2. Michael - my gut tells me he goes out just before the end, people see him as a strategic threat, but he is so well insulated from the madness right now that unless he suddenly overplays his long term prospects look really good right now. Connections all over the place, but not over the top visible.
3. Hope - our big riser from the early merge game! In the scenario where all the "big threats" annihilate each other, I think Hope is the winner. And that...happens fairly often in Survivor games. Poody said to watch out for a trio of Hope/Rocker/Shamar and I totally agree that if they are not dealt with, that will be the end game. Hope's relatively quiet premerge (from a social perspective) helped her start off with a low threat level, people love her humor, she's playing socially well and was crucial both as a planner (for the Reynold vote with Alexis) and as a mediator in the tribal tonight.
4. Sherri - She's in a similar to position to Matt right now, but she's higher visibility (Liz is still out for blood) and probably has fewer connections. With that being said, maybe she'll be seen as a lower threat later on because of it? Also still has one idol, and I think will end up with another possibly.
5. Whichever of Alexis/Elizabeth doesn't get voted out first - they're both extremely high vis (Alexis completely OTT'd tonight with an idol clue buy, immunity win, and dictating the vote) while Liz was high vis all premerge but has quieted down recently. I expect one of them to go soon (mostly for partner/threat reasons) but whichever one is left could be in an Aaron scenario where they could be a free agent and go pretty far.

HM:
Stephannie and Alexis/Elizabeth (first boot) - these are players that I think would win if they made the end, but I'm finding it increasingly hard to do so. Alexis/Liz both have monstrous targets, and Stephannie has a pretty high one (got votes in back to back councils) but ended up losing some crucial allies the last couple of votes.

Goat status: Shamar and Aurora seemed pretty cemented here right now.

[Danni Boatwright]

Danni has been slacking!!!

I'll give my thoughts here into F11

1. Matt - back at the top after surviving the initial anti-Pukaroa 3.0 purge. He continues to show a master class in UTR social game, doing a great job of attributing targeting. Has some incredibly loyal allies in Sherri/Steph that are also shields, and people on the other side like Mike/Jess really want to continue working with him. He isn't going home any time soon.
2. Michael - my gut tells me he goes out just before the end, people see him as a strategic threat, but he is so well insulated from the madness right now that unless he suddenly overplays his long term prospects look really good right now. Connections all over the place, but not over the top visible.
3. Hope - our big riser from the early merge game! In the scenario where all the "big threats" annihilate each other, I think Hope is the winner. And that...happens fairly often in Survivor games. Poody said to watch out for a trio of Hope/Rocker/Shamar and I totally agree that if they are not dealt with, that will be the end game. Hope's relatively quiet premerge (from a social perspective) helped her start off with a low threat level, people love her humor, she's playing socially well and was crucial both as a planner (for the Reynold vote with Alexis) and as a mediator in the tribal tonight.
4. Sherri - She's in a similar to position to Matt right now, but she's higher visibility (Liz is still out for blood) and probably has fewer connections. With that being said, maybe she'll be seen as a lower threat later on because of it? Also still has one idol, and I think will end up with another possibly.
5. Whichever of Alexis/Elizabeth doesn't get voted out first - they're both extremely high vis (Alexis completely OTT'd tonight with an idol clue buy, immunity win, and dictating the vote) while Liz was high vis all premerge but has quieted down recently. I expect one of them to go soon (mostly for partner/threat reasons) but whichever one is left could be in an Aaron scenario where they could be a free agent and go pretty far.

HM:
Stephannie and Alexis/Elizabeth (first boot) - these are players that I think would win if they made the end, but I'm finding it increasingly hard to do so. Alexis/Liz both have monstrous targets, and Stephannie has a pretty high one (got votes in back to back councils) but ended up losing some crucial allies the last couple of votes.

Goat status: Shamar and Aurora seemed pretty cemented here right now.

Love the Hope writeup.

I'll do a full writeup later but my 5 contenders heading into merge were Stephannie, Matt, Michael, Sherri, Allie. Lost Allie which kinda sucks bc i thought she was finally getting her footing after the Reynold boot.

thanks for posting something Joaq. I'll do some dirty hand stuff for you in the production tent.

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

Same five for me today, just different order

1. Michael - the hardest part for someone in a clear power position like him is getting someone to go to the end with him. Aurora wants to do just that for some reason. The Rocker boot was a great decision for him, he continues to control the flow of information and people are not gunning for him right now for some reason.
2. Hope - continues to be underestimated by the current players, but it's clear the jury LOVES her right now. Rocker I don't think was an amazing boot for her strategically but he is going to be willing to go to bat for her in jury. She needs to start going after some of these big threats soon.
3. Matt - found the merge idol! And continues to play well socially, but I'm just starting to get serious doubts about his end-game strategy. It seems like the people he keeps closest and wants to go deepest with are all the biggest jury threats and I don't think going to the end with Michael or Sherri will work out well for him.
4. Sherri - played an idol last night (though she didn't need to), and is one of two people that knows about Matt's idol. I think she is probably getting more credit than she deserves from some players (like Liz), and I think she's benefiting from the Liz target. I am struggling a bit to see where she tries to maneuver here. Rocker was a good boot for her.
5. Honestly I don't think I should have anyone else here right now lol

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

Updates for today:

Michael still #1. With Matt and Aurora both seemingly content to go to the end with him, and an immunity necklace to boot, feels like he is steamrolling through the game right now.

Add Stephannie back to the contenders list. She's had a few cooldown episodes (despite crushing the immunity challenge last night) to the point where I don't think she is nearly as big a threat as she was before. Which, to be fair, she hasn't really been in control at all these last few votes, but if threats start targeting each other she will have a juicy endgame.

Jess has fully entered the goat tier. I don't know what would happen in a Jess/Shamar/Aurora F3 - the jury would probably just not vote. But the no vote last night basically turned Liz onto poisoning the jury against her.

[Danni Boatwright]

the jury would probably just not vote.

Jess did set the precedent

[Danni Boatwright]

Alright it's been a minute but I'm back. Fuck ice storms, fuck the american supply chain, and fuck my life!!!

1-Michael is clearly the top winner contender at the moment. Even with Jess and Alexis mad at him, I don't think he's in any immediate danger, especially with the partner immunity in his pocket to play if he ever feels unsafe. Matt/Aurora/Sherri all seem pretty confident in him as a number, and I just don't see him leaving before the final 6. At that point i think it's a crapshoot of convincing people to take him to final tribal, and some on this tribe are just dumb enough to do it.

2-Stephannie is playing a great social game at the moment and has been crushing the immunity challenges all season long. if theres someone who stands a chance at comping out, its definitely her. Add on that she has been relatively drama free and I think theres a clear case for her to win. Biggest issue is that I don't think Stephannie has a true #1 ally who will fight for her to stay in a tough spot, so I could see her being a last minute boot if Jess or Michael play their partner immunity.

3-Hope is the only true wildcard player left in the game. People can clearly see that shes playing the middle and isn't loyal to any side, but that makes her a valuable piece to keep on the board. I wonder if she'll be able to articulate her position and why it's so good if she makes it to FTC of her first ORG, but I think she's likable enough to pull it off with the right group.

Honorable Mentions:

Matt-I thought he was getting a lot more credit for his UTR strategy, but it seems people are really pairing him with Sherri as her lapdog. Not a great spot, but he seems long for the game.

Alexis/Sherri-Perceived to be playing big games just because they're so strong socially. it's a hard position to play form, but I think they've done well enough to make it to F9

The Rest:

Shamar-my favorite kind of Goat tbh. he doesn't really know he's out of the running and he'll just do whatever he wants because he has strong opinions and feelings. Loved the stray Jess vote last round. Only chance to win would be an Aurora/Jess/Shamar F3? and even then i think he loses?

Aurora-lmfao watching her conversations before tribal council is my favorite part of this season. She's so blunt and it rubs everyone the wrong way, AND SHE THINKS SHE CAN BEAT MATT AND MICHAEL. truly and iconic run to watch.

Jess-Her strong premerge is unraveling before her eyes and she knows it. I would love to see her swing for the fences here to try and save it, but I think she may be a lost cause.

[Danni Boatwright]

Was last night the beginning of the end for our big threats of Tuamotus? Sure we lost a goat in Aurora, but with majority rules and tribal blowups exposing Michael and Alexis (as if people didn't already know they were the top tier threats) we may be heading for the threat culling we see at the end of every season. With that in mind, I think we're going to start seeing those middle of the road contenders as our most likely winners.

1-Stephannie: If we're going to pick the most middle of the road personality/player left, I think Steph is our top option to win. She's not being actively targeted like Sherri/Michael/Alexis, but shes not considered a goat like Jess/Shamar. I think she stands a good chance of making it to the final 5, and has the competition skills to potentially make the end when her threat level increases. UB as a winner would be a wild and worthy end to this season imo

2-Hope: She's riding a fine line between being a middle of the road threat and a F3 goat, but she's not out of contention. I don't really see a reason for anyone other than michael to cut Hope, and I think if she plays her hand right she can outlast Michael and make an endgame run. I don't know if her perception on the jury is that great, and i wonder if she has the ability to sell her game for the win. Regardless, she still has a few players she can beat

3-Sherri: With the attention now on Michael and Alexis as the big threats, I think Sherri should be safe for a few more rounds? As long as Matt doesnt suddenly decide to betray her I think she should be fine for a bit, especially since one of the partner idols was wasted. If sherri can continue to balance her relationships I think shes the most likely "big threat" to sit at the end

HM

Michael/Alexis: Touchy Subjects is usually the catalyst for the big players to get sent to jury, and I think the game may have done a lot of damage to their chances to sit at the end. Michael has descended into an OTTN villain, and Alexis is considered to be the biggest threat left in the game. if they make the end I think one of them wins, but my confidence in them making F3 is dropping daily.

Matt: I think he's playing a great UTR game, but i think the jury sees him as a goat. Wondering if he'll be able to pull his shit together and stand out from Michael/Sherri's shadows?

Goats

Shamar: Still stan him but i really think hes out of the race.

Jess: Wasted partner immunity and spent tribal fighting with Michael, who is one of the only people left that she has a working relationship with. I do love her scorched earth confessional about trying to ruin his game in ponderosa, even if i think thats bad sportsmanship. I think her descent into goat territory post merge has been a compelling story for sure.

[Cochran]

I kind of want Hope to win. What a crazy story, her being the potential first boot to a winner. She's shown a lot of growth and a very, very solid game thus far. People think she's a little erratic but if she going to the end with shamar and jess I mean that's an easy game.

[Danni Boatwright]

I know we always joke about how the big threats should stick together and take out the goats, but I never thought we'd see them actually do it? wtf? Now for real, I think taking out Shamar is a bad move for a few players, and only Alexis truly fought against the move and recognized how bad it was for her game before tribal. I think a few others have caught on post tribal, and I'm interested to see how this impacts the endgame dynamics.

1-Sherri is getting my top spot today only because Stephannie came very close to getting votes last night while Alexis was immune. Jess has also offered her safety through final 4, and as we've seen in the merge so far Jess is trying VERY hard to stick to her word. I think having Sherri in F4 is a bad choice for Jess/Matt/Hope bc she's arguably going to be better in the final challenge, but I guess we'll see how it plays out. I think she has a great story if she can make it to F3, and somehow she has managed to fall back into the crowd after being labeled a huge threat at merge.

2-Matt is taking a jump up here because I think he is on track to make the F3 of his dreams with Jess and Hope. I know he's descending into villain territory in his DMs with Michael, but he is consistently included in every plan and people trust him so much, despite his tendency to just leak everything to michael. He also has an idol in his pocket which is only good for 2 more tribals, and I think he's going to use it correctly and make a name for himself right at the end. If he manages to pull that off, I think he'd be a solid UTR winner. Plus then we get that ragged ass beard front and center of the Tuamotus cover, which I find fitting for this season

3-Stephannie is dropping a bit here because her name was circulating last night as the potential boot against Shamar, which i think is an unfortunate sign that no one left in the game is really planning on taking her to the end. Now, she still has insane challenge skills and could potentially keep herself safe for a while, but I have a feeling she'll be out at 6 or 5. I'd love to see her make FTC after starting on the bottom of her original tribe, but the closer we get the less paths i see for her to sit at the end.

4-Michael: does he have Matt whipped enough to use his idol and keep him safe? idk i guess we'll see. He's going full villain and idk if Matt thinks thats beatable in the F3, especially when Michael has been a high visibility threat for like 5 rounds now. If hes in the F3, great shot at winning. I just don't think he'll be there

5-Hope is one of the people who I think made a mistake in voting out Shamar. Not that she isn't a great player, but it limits her options of who to sit with at F3, and makes it much harder to get the W. her current plan to sit with Matt and Jess seems like a one way ticket to second place, and unless she does something great with her vote steal idk if she has the time left to assert herself in the game. The Jury adores her which is a good thing, I just wonder if that will be enough to beat out anyone but Jess

6-Jess made a mistake voting out Shamar. I think Jess is now the most beatable person left in the game, and she's mistaking all of these F3/F4 deals as her being great instead of her getting dragged. I don't see a world where she is able to pull something off to make herself a threat in the game, and her closest allies from in game don't seem to be thrilled with her in Jury house. Guess we'll see what happens.

7-Alexis is ranked 7 because she was slated to go home tonight, and then was forced into voting out the one person who didn't want to vote her. She's easily the biggest threat left in the game, and because of that she'll be voted out as soon as she isn't immune. I expect it to be tonight, but stranger things have happened.

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

Don't know how you have Jess over Alexis (not that it matters) - a world exists where Alexis comps out and wins. I just don't see Jess winning at this stage.

I think barring an immunity run, it's pretty much a lock that the winner will be one of Sherri/Matt/Steph/Hope. Alexis/Michael will be booted soon for threat status and Jess being the goat. Sherri/Steph are probably bigger threats / higher status right now, but Matt/Hope have advantages that can flip the game.

[Danni Boatwright]

Don't know how you have Jess over Alexis (not that it matters) - a world exists where Alexis comps out and wins. I just don't see Jess winning at this stage.

I think barring an immunity run, it's pretty much a lock that the winner will be one of Sherri/Matt/Steph/Hope. Alexis/Michael will be booted soon for threat status and Jess being the goat. Sherri/Steph are probably bigger threats / higher status right now, but Matt/Hope have advantages that can flip the game.

Alexis is at the bottom because i just don't see a world where she makes F3. A clear winner if she's sitting there, but like John last season I think it is just too many rounds for her to have a real shot

[Danni Boatwright]

TOP 5 BABY!!!!

This is probably the most competitive final 5 I've seen since I started hosting. IMO there's only one person who is for sure not winning, and even the "goat" of the game had a strong pre-merge and isn't just acting as an extra vote for the eventual winner. In fact, I think the end of this game is going to be determined by which pair Jess decides to vote with tonight. Not necessarily the king/queen maker, but if she falls for Michael's manipulation AGAIN, I think there's a non zero chance that she makes the wrong move here and lets him drag her to the end, thus handing him the win.


1-Sherri seems to be the jury favorite at the moment, and i think her challenge skills make her a formidable opponent for the F5 and F4 immunity challenges. She has deals set up with Jess/Matt/Steph but who knows if any of that will stick this late in the game. If she loses tonight, I'm very worried that she'll be taken out in 5th (icons only, tbh) but that's just the way the endgame shakes out. I think she'd be a very satisfying winner for this season.

2-Michael is a strange case here because he has descended into an OTT villain while playing the most strategic game of the merge. I'm looking back at all the boots and I'm shocked at how beneficial the boot order was to his game. I think he stands a great shot at the win if he's in the final 3, but he'll need to be able to appease a jury who feels like he burned them all.

3-Stephannie is a more lowkey version of Sherri IMO, which makes her more likely to sit in the F3. I worry for her because if Sherri does win immunity, Steph lacks the late game deals to potentially keep her safe here. That being said, her middle of the road game is resonating with the jury right now, and I think she stands a good chance at getting votes if she makes F3, and especially if she can make it with Matt and Jess

4-Matt is now descending into villain territory as well, and Hope is probably destroying any chance he had at winning as the UTR strategist by airing his dirty laundry to the jury. I wouldn't say he has no chance at the title, but I think he's going to have to do A LOT of work to make it happen. I especially wonder how things will go for him if he needs to cut Sherri or Steph this late in the game. I have a hunch they won't be very forgiving.

5-Jess is definitely the "goat" of this final 5, which is saying a lot about the caliber of player that is left in the game. I think it's clear to everyone in the game that she lost control back at the Allie/Rocker votes, and then lost her credibility as a player when she decided not to vote for Liz or Sherri. It's hard to play the survival game after that, but unfortunately for Jess she just hasn't gotten any agency back to assert herself as an endgame threat, and she allowed the other goats of the game to get voted out. It's not looking great for her winner chances, but she is a focal point of the story for sure. A more chaotic Laurel from ghost island arc, imo.

[Danni Boatwright]

Liklihood to make Final Tribal:
1-Jess
2-Matt
3-Stephannie
4-Sherri
5-Michael

Liklihood to win:
1-Sherri
2-Michael
3-Stephannie
4-Matt
5-Jess

[Danni Boatwright]

Liklihood to make Final Tribal:
1-Jess
2-Matt
3-Stephannie
4-Sherri
5-Michael

Well, seeing as Jess has decided to hitch her wagon to Michael, this was a bad call lol.

[John]

My top 5 winner picks are all on the Te Poto tribe now. Sherri/Matt/Stephannie/Reynold are all great individually, but letting War Dog go is going to bite them at the merge (still can't believe they didn't attempt to split the votes on Allie tonight).

Much like all my other predictions, this aged poorly.