- Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:41:07 pm
#57455
Also Tai has been a poster in both challenges so if he really does want to throw then he has the ability to. I really, really want him to.
Big round today before the presumed swap. A swap here would be perfect honestly, I think that things are pretty interesting right now and there is the potential for the dynamics to get so fucked up. A lot of people don't know they're in danger which is good for a swap tbh. The tribes seem pretty parrallel to each other. Two majority alliances(The Buffet and the Te Tapo or whatever guys) With some dissension inside of them. Stephannie completely defecting to the Noobs, while Allie does to the vets. Tai and Missy being the on the outs person who's name has been thrown around but the others are keeping around. War Dog and Rocker having their new teams and people on the other side worrying about them. Laura and Reynold being the kind of on the in but kind of on the outs. Aurora is sort of the odd person out here and I think that if she goes, and we can keep this whole thing moving the way it is we'll have a verry tense swap with an even tenser merge. Depending.
Pukaroa-
Looking to boot Aurora and that's what I want. They could win but that would be less good and I'll explain why on Te Poto. Alphabetically-
Alexis is back to the top of my list. She's phenomenal over there and is still slightly too close to the sun but it's working for her. Everyone seems to trust her. The issue is that it's pretty well known that she's on top here and that will catch up to her. She's almost definitely a merge person but her threat level is elevated by her partnership, one that everyone knows is working. I like her a lot though, it's good to see how her mind works and how she's managing all of these connections.
Aurora has the potential to be entertaining and if she stays I will not be too pressed. I think her leaving makes the most sense to keep things a little tense with out any explosions. If we let more and more tension build up it will explode more heavily and that's what I want. So she's getting pushed out here for me just to keep things moving. I think if she does stay she has a lot of routes she can take, I mean I don't think she's even really in the know that she's out here since she will angle for Tai? Broski nation wants that video confessional though.
Matt is still incredibly positioned but he's had a cooldown round here. He's doing what I thought Sherri was going to do a million times better. The one squandered opportunity though is Missy who he went in deciding he wouldn't like. He's got this team under his thumb sans like Rocker who he's just not giving enough to? But is still in a good spot. He could get fucked on a bad swapped team but all in all I think he's a pretty solid merge contender.
Michael, gotta love the dedication. This guy is putting in dog hours and ever so slightly souring people and I like that. Unlike Shamar when he does something people don't seem to think it's wrong or him and that's cause he probably comes off as genuine. I think he's a killer in here and has fixed his relationship with Jess (who he doesn't even actually care about I don't think?) I feel like is pretty well poised to make the merge here also.
Reynold pleasantly surprised me with how well he's getting some of the people on his side here. He doesn't confess that much and has been cited as not talking as much game but he seems like such a genuine guy so people want him in their pocket. That is a valid strategy if he gets rid of some of those people towards the end. The early game is so different from the merge and I think he's doing enough right now. The thing is that he can get got on a swapped tribe that doesn't favor him. If not then he'll be long for this game for sure.
Rocker blew the fuck up this round for me. I always knew he was good but he is one of the people poised to take the best position in the game here. He has some people who don't love him and that could hurt in a swap but if he makes it past that then he has people on both sides who will pull at him. His essay to Alexis and Shamar did what it intended to and got him in their good graces. He's really playing well and I think his confessionals are informative and sometimes pretty fucking funny. He's one to watch here and I didn't think that would be the case gameplay wise since he's more of a character too. Very impressed here.
Shamar has had a little bit of a cooldown. He's already getting caught up with his stuff and that sort of sucks? Since he's entertaining. He has a good link to Rocker but besides that everyone even in his alliance sort of sees him as a skeezeball which will catch up to him. He is also not even attempting to really use his partnership so if he gets swapped over with some people that aren't his people then he's kind of fucking boned tbh. He's still fun to watch but he needs to do soemthing different or he will get hit. Stay Tuned!
Stephannie has completely flipped away from her vet counterparts besides Wardog but I don't think they know that yet. The noobs seem in awe of her a little bit but also want to work with her so she is going to be a humongous threat moving forward. The issue is that you aren't going to be able to hide it too much. I like that she took what little she had going on and really did a lot for herself in regards to making a name for herself as a pseudo HBIC. She likely hits merge and will be targeted soon after just for being as amazing as she is. I like that she knows they should lose her. I hope she acts on it.
Sherri is still doing fine. Some people want to meet her, others are working with her but she's not even really anyones top dog? Which is kind of a problem. She didn't tell Reynold about the idol and he found out so he trusts her less too. I think that Matt is just doing her job a little bit better here. She's obviously got a good pulse on her team at the very least and I don't think anyone comes for her here but it might end up being a problem later when people have to let other people go? She might not have everyone backing her up in a swap. If she makes merge then she has a lot of room to play though. I don't think she'll let them get her here.
Tai is doing very well for himself here. He took a shit position and really made something good for him and I'm happy he did. He also pretty much definitely deflected from the Vets and made a lot of good inroads with the noobs. I love his relationship with Laura as they are both sort of low key and are definitely in the realm of being trustworthy. He is scrappy and I am all about his continued survival but he definitely will fall if he hits the wrong swap here.
Te Poto-
These guys are being kind of fucking dumb here lol but I'm for it. I want them to win because I think that everyone here can provide some entertainment and also if they do lose then some people are going to be pissed when they boot Steph. Why make a move like that right before a swap?
Allie is sort of cooling down. I still love her takes because it's a little nutty and definitely self serving but she is crawling up the vet butthole as much as she can. It's good though, there needs to be some opposition to the alliance on her former tribe and she is thinking about the small things like getting liz to say hey to Alexis (someone she didn't even like) for that future swap that may or may not be coming. I just think she's letting other people sort of decide her fate here and that's fine because it will get her to the next phase. Still a big fan.
Elizabeth is showing that she doesn't have the full picture here a little bit. She is driving this steph boot tonight. I get where she's coming from, she wants to keep missy who is promising to work with her to the merge at the very least. The thing is that you're going to piss off SO MANY PEOPLE by doing it. And we might swap here. Missy doesn't actually want to be with you dude, she will not enable you to win this game. So don't make a move that'll get half the cast angry when you could just cut your loses over someone you KNOW is volatile. You know she will want you out. But I get wanting your cake and to eat it to. It's just that you could wait another round or two to get Steph. She doesn't even want her out really I just don't get it.
Hope had the round of her life here. Lots to unpack. First off the plan to try and pry Jess and Liz apart and put herself firmly in there. Amazing. It will cause drama whether it works or not. I love how much effort she put in here to get herself up out of the hole. She is showing a lot of game and self awareness, and she is pretty well poised to be THE noob that is able to get with some of the older noobs on her tribe. And that's from barely getting past a round one boot. I was sleeping on her at first but my eyes have been opened and I can't wait to continue to see her be fiery and actually damn good at the game on top of it.
Jed is still on coast mode here and he should be. He's doing well enough in that no one actually wants him out and there are bigger fish to fry in his alliance. He's sort of the face of that group for me though since that seems to be his main plan. I think that as his allies start falling around him he's going to have to audible and make something else happen which I'm here for. He can be such a likable/rootable non crazy if he starts struggling a little bit.
Jessica I could just copy and paste Liz's thing tbh. I think this move is even worse for her honestly because she doesn't have the noob brigade to fall back on like Liz does. Why does she give a fuck about Missy hanging around? But she's going to make some people mad, leaving her open to an ax here at the swap which is just kind of dumb. I say that knowing that's exactly what I did in winners
But she even said she knows that making a move is about timing and for no reason here so like what the fuck dude. I really, really like her here and want her to succeed but this is just inhibiting her ability to do so.Laura is cute here but isn't as active it seems? I dunno, I'm for her here because her and Tai have a good relationship to follow and same with her and Hope. I think that she's taking the relationship across team and milking it for all that it's worth and her and Tai should be bonding over being in the not best spot on their original team. She's done very well for herself though she's a fringe so she could end up being expendable but if she isn't then I can just see her continuing to improve. The swap (if it comes) will be rough for her.
Missy is just sort of crazy and angry for no reason? She did one good thing and that's suck Liz's dick enough to want her to keep her around but she's been pretty low key except for when she's mad that the other tribe doesn't do whatever she wants them to do lol. She's also kind of boned because Matt doesn't want to work with her. Her choices are very limited so she's making the most with what she has and she did rope in the noobs a hell of a lot. I know now writing this that their team lost so good for her on not going home but if she keeps being just angry and not actually gameplay crazy then I'm not super invested tbh.
Stephanie- Likely going home here with an idol in her pocket which sucks. She was doing fine and just got got because she wasn't in enough and they want to hurt Jed or something? I like the idea of her getting booted when she has the idol to play but even if she does she doesn't have the foresight to get rid of someone who isn't missy so... yeah. I think that War Dog is going to be pissed pissed here and this is not the smartest thing for everyone making the move besides the noobs who are denting in to the vets already weak infrastructure.
War Dog is actually in a very, very good spot if he keeps playing his cards right. He's a little cocky but cautious but in the same vein as Rocker he has people who will want him from all over the game. Which is awesome for him. That's if he doesn't get fucked in the swap though. Which he definitely could because people are burning him now. If he makes merge he no shit becomes a contender since he's inoffensive so far and is willing to play hard. I have always liked the fact that he's self serving and I think that in this game it's only going to benefit him. Especially in a merge that will be as tense as this game has been.
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***I want to note here that I say all of this shit coming from a high and mighty place like I'm some strategic god but a lot of what I'm faulting people for is for making mistakes that I've made in the past. I already said this but the liz Jess move, I did the same shit last time I was on stranded and promptly got got for it. So if I'm shitting on you then just know that you suck but that I ALSO suck too so we can suck together, ty.
