[Danni Boatwright]

We back



Format for this season will be the same as Tanzania. I'll pick 5 players during each pre-merge round that I think are playing the best games and stand the best chance at winning. Come merge, I'll lock in my picks and see if I bet on the right horses. Post-merge I'll just be ranking for fun.

I'm batting .500 since I've started doing this (Thanks Aaron ) so lets see if I can bring the average up! If anyone else would like to participate, feel free to add your own comments.

~Danni

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

My preseason contender list, in no particular order (spoilers: it's going to skew heavily towards the fans)

1. Alexis - Longtime player and host, and typically the heavily NDIM types have good social games here (think Val). I do know her from before, she can handle the crazies too. Preseason player comparison: Gabby heading into Morocco.
2. Jed - My only returnee here. He's the least insane of the returnees, and has shown the flashes that he's capable of a winning game. Has the right mindset coming into here and won't be an overwhelming threat.
3. Sherri - very charismatic interview, Sucksters always show out on Stranded. Lots of experience on ORGy. Preseason player comparison: Sierra from Indonesia.
4. Michael - has been playing games since 2002 (!). Very laid back, easy to talk to, Nofo has a crush on him. Listened to all of the Podcasts on Youtube to prepare for the season. Preseason player comparison: Tommy from Tanzania or Matt from Invasion
5. Hope - she's inexperienced, but seemed competitive and is really funny. I think that will translate to a strong social game assuming good activity levels. Preseason player comparison: Idk actually

Honorable Mention - Liz. I think given the potential, it's really hard to rule her out, but I think she's just coming into this with a handicap compared to others in that there is a significant number of returnees that would probably never let her near the end because of her rep. That won't matter to new players and returnees she's never met before, but I just feel like Garrett or Hannah or someone will fuck her over.

[Danni Boatwright]

Let's get this started. We're off to a messy start with a double boot episode AND a swap in the opening weekend. A lot of bad decisions were made, and I expect that to be a continuing theme this season. That being said, here are my thoughts on a few of the key players of round 1. It's still so early and there are too many people left that I don't really know, but I think there are definitely some standouts.

1-Sherri is probably playing my favorite game off of the new player tribe. She is included in the core alliance that drove the first vote, and she is also consistently mentioned by the remaining players as one of their favorites on the tribe. The swap put her with all of the power players from her original tribe AS WELL AS Stephannie (who she has played with in the past), and I think we're seeing someone set up to be a major force down the line. If Sherri can cement herself with her fan alliance while also picking up some loyal returnee allies, I think she could be unstoppable. Lets hope she can hold it together!

2-Alexis has most of the same points as Sherri, although I think she is much more visible as a threat. She also had the infamous slip up in the tribe chat where she let Erik know he was going home, which is always a fun moment. She's clearly safe on this swap tribe having been put on a tribe with her core alliance, and her partnership with Elizabeth will probably be the most interesting one in the game.

3-Matt. I couldn't decide if I wanted to rank him or Michael here, but I figured Michael seemed a little more messy and entertaining, which means Matt is probably playing better. Basically that entire core alliance from Pukora could have been ranked here. I'm hoping we see Matt come alive here at the swap and maybe jockey for a power position within his alliance rather than just being a loyal number. Only time will tell.

4-Jed was a pick I made from the heart, not from the brain. Honestly I don't think any of the returnees deserved to be ranked after this round, but based on the conversations I was reading after tribal last night, he was able to sell Stephannie and Tai that he stuck with his vote to take out Eddie. As a bonus, his swap put him in a returnee majority, reconnected him with Liz, kept him on the same tribe as his ally Jess, and provided him with a few easy votes? I don't see a way in which this swap doesn't put Jed in a better position than he was already in. But there are also 2 idols on his tribe, and we all know his history with idols

5-Shamar!!! I'm loving him this season, and it's hard to believe it's his first game. Maybe he's playing a little hard out of the gate, but his tribemates love him, and he isn't afraid to make moves and claim a little power for himself. He was the one who ultimately pushed the target onto Erik with a little fib to Elizabeth, and I doubt he gets any blowback for it down the line. Granted its the first boot and there's a lot of game to go, but for someone new to online gaming he is really impressing me.

Honorable mentions:

Michael-May as well mention that entire core alliance that swapped together. I expect him to be the crack later in the game though.

Stephannie- Love UB's reads this season. Hoping her swap tribe will give her an opportunity to better her position after the Garrett boot.

Elizabeth- Always a big player. Curious to see if she can maneuver into a good position with the returnees after being separated from her big alliance, as well as how she handles being back with Missy. I have faith!!

[Danni Boatwright]

Another day, another dollar. On the surface last nights round didn't seem to make too many waves, but below the surface there was a lot of shit going down. I don't think it changes my initial impressions much, but depending on how things shake out in the next few swapped rounds we could see some major power shifts.

1-Sherri is still my top contender at this point. She's in a comfortable spot on the new Pukora tribe, found half an idol, could potentially guide 1N steph to an idol half, and has comfortable options with Reynold and 2N Stephannie. None of her allies seem to wary of her at the moment, while there already seems to be some tension building in the other relationships in the new player majority. Honestly I think the only flaw I have with Sherri's game is that people don't seem to recognize just how great she is, although thats probably a blessing this early in the game.

2-Matt jumps up a spot for me mostly because he's the most suspicious of the other members of his alliance. I think a healthy amount of paranoia is good, especially to a well organized player like Matt who won't overreact (see Aurora and Hannah for the opposite kind of gameplay). I think his partnership with Michael is going to be key to the long game, and he seems to be the less outwardly threatening player in that duo, so I see him making it further. I'm a bit worried about this plan for a cross tribal alliance that Matt is trying to make with Michael/Jess mostly because he is partnered with Missy, and I don't believe Jess wants to include Missy in their group. My gut would not feel great about a mega alliance of partners that excluded my own, so hopefully Matt finds a way to make the alliance more beneficial to himself than to Jess/Michael.

3-Alexis takes a little bit of a dip for me, mostly because her allies are starting to realize that she isn't openly sharing her information as readily as the rest of them are. Personally I think Alexis is making the right play, but sometimes you need to make the less strategic choice in order to appease your allies, especially this early in the game. I don't think any of her choices are going to make her a target in the near future, but I don't want her game to suffer down the line because Michael/Matt are mad at her for being guarded. I think her partnership with Liz is the strongest in the game at the moment, but I'm worried that having two big players linked together like that. Regardless, I'm enjoying her game so far and am hoping she can pull things together a bit through this swap and solidify a more solid position moving forward.

4-Jed is annoying me lol. I don't think he NEEDED to throw the challenge last night, as their tribe is clearly weaker at challenges.... like way weaker. But the fact that he posted a confessional mid puzzle shows me hes here to play and protect his allies. It's no surprise to me that Jed would try and stick OG tribe strong, especially because he and Hannah seem to be very tight. I hate throwing in general, but I also know Jed is a pretty by the books strategist and can see the benefit for his game. What I'm worried about for Jed is that he doesn't seem to be branching out with the new players so much, and I think putting all your eggs in one basket is dumb for a game of survivor. My hope is that in the next round or two, he can solidify some kind of personal alliance with a few new players. Not the massive alliance Jess is working on, I want to see his own social work with the new players, otherwise my hopes for his winning game are going to plummet.

5-Liz is getting ranked despite the fact that I think her spot is blown with the new players on Te Poto, but she has all the tools to keep herself safe. She's very clearly the best social player on that tribe (maybe in the whole game?) and people are starting to notice. However, it isn't in any of the new players best interest to take her out, as she is FAR more likely to work with them than say, Jess or Wardog. I do think that Jess's cross tribal alliance idea benefits liz the most, as she would be the most connected in that supermajority, but I'd be worried that everyone would notice that position and turn on her. Curious to see where her game goes from here, probably more so than I am for any other player.

Honorable mentions:

Michael- Continues to play well. Strikes me as way more paranoid than the rest of his allies which worries me. Honestly could have probably ranked him over liz but his writeup would basically just be Matt's with a little manic energy on the side.

Shamar- I love Shamar's game, but he's starting to get caught in his little moves by allies like Matt. He also almost blew the challenge, which had players like Alexis thinking about cutting him!! those are supposed to be his allies, and if they want to cut you for doing poorly on a puzzle over people like hannah and aurora, that worries me. Hoping he can pull it together.

Jess- Probably need to mention her here because she is positioned very well on Te Poto. I think the cross tribal alliance shes trying to set up is good in theory, but i don't know if she has the social capital to hold it together in a way that benefits her. I'm thinking someone like Liz/Michael/Alexis kinda starts calling the shots instead of Jess, which then makes her expendable when they need to cut their own. Personally I would like to see Jess work more on a majority within this swapped Te Poto tribe where she can really build trust with players from both OG tribes rather than trusting in her partner to make moves for her. As we saw last night, Matt/Michael/Alexis are already suspicious of how the vets all pushed for Tai to go home, and i suspect there will be more instances where the newbies learn a lot of information about the vets through Jess's attempts to call the shots on Pukora.

Losers:
I felt the need to call out some absolutely horrible moments from last night

Hannah/Aurora: Aurora's paranoia is back in full force, and it may get hannah booted from the game if Pukora goes to tribal. I think Hannah needs to bail on this plan to get rid of Tai and fight to get rid of aurora and save herself.

Wardog: lol at his loose lips after finding an idol half. I feel bad for him because usually idols can only be found once and then the forum is locked, but in this case he basically ensured all the Te Poto tribe members can find the idol half.

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

I mostly agree (as in...4/5 choices are the same) but I think you are missing a BIG one.

1. Matt/Sherri - Interchangeable at the top. Matt has been the most social player in the game so far while Sherri has been slightly more UTR. But both are social without coming off as big threats.
2. Matt/Sherri
3. Jed - he is honestly way more boring than I thought he would be (maybe he didn't align with crazy enough people?) but he's gonna go far
4. STEPHANNIE - I did NOT think she would be my favorite returnee still in the game at this point. She is sociable, she has by far the best strategic reads. Is she in some dominating majority right now...no. But I just feel good about this one.
5. Liz...maybe famous last words, but she is the only person at this point I would guarantee to make the merge. She is hyper visible but her game has striking similarities to Sebastian's from Morocco at this point.

[Danni Boatwright]

I mostly agree (as in...4/5 choices are the same) but I think you are missing a BIG one.

4. STEPHANNIE - I did NOT think she would be my favorite returnee still in the game at this point. She is sociable, she has by far the best strategic reads. Is she in some dominating majority right now...no. But I just feel good about this one.

I really love 2N Steph, but I just feel like at this point she has little to no agency. If she is able to weasel her way into an alliance and make it solid, she'll skyrocket on my list. Probably should have put her in an honorable mention post just to credit her reads and killer puzzle skillz

[Danni Boatwright]

I'm in a bit of a funk this morning, so I'll keep it brief. It also helps that not much has changed in my eyes. The good players are still playing well, and the bad players are spiraling <3

1-Sherri has no change other than that she now has a full idol. I'm kinda hoping steph gets voted out and that sherri can just have it for herself. Idk if thats how the idol works, but a boy can dream.

2-Matt continues to play well and drive a lot of strategy on Pukora. Not much else has changed, hes just really well liked.

3-Alexis is the same writeup as matt. Enjoying the video confessionals and copious amounts of wine. Tbh hoping things get shaken up a little on that tribe because i want to see how that big alliance deals with adversity.

4-Elizabeth moves up a spot because i cannot believe that she is once again in such a good position on a pre-merge tribe. Idol in her pocket, vets want to work with her, newbs want to work with her even though they're wary, and she still has a majority alliance waiting for her return on the other tribe. Girl has game and people need to wake up to it.

5-Michael is finally getting on the list because he is starting to realize that Jess's attempts to control the pukora vote are not in his long term interests. I feel like thats not a huge realization, but I think its going to allow him to make moves on this tribe (if they ever go to tribal lol) that will benefit his own game and not this theoretical massive majority alliance they were talking about on Sunday.

Honorable mentions:

Stephannie- she's got good reads and has been carrying her tribe on her back during these challenges. As I stated yesterday, I just want to see solid evidence that she can find an alliance and gain some power in the game before I rank her in the top 5.

Losers:

The viewers: We lost brandon, the Te Poto vets are complacent with their majority position on their swapped tribe, and they insist on making this season boring by voting out all the fun characters. I know thats par for the course on most returnee seasons, but it still sucks to see it play out.

[Loveita Adams]

Why the Jed drop? I think he gets an HM for being almost invisible right now for people and well connected. Rocker is also pulling the invisibility trick off well, but isn't as connected.

[Danni Boatwright]

Why the Jed drop? I think he gets an HM for being almost invisible right now for people and well connected. Rocker is also pulling the invisibility trick off well, but isn't as connected.

The Jed drop isn't so much a drop in his gameplay, so much as Elizabeth and Michael impressing me a bit more in the last round. I think the group of Liz/Jed/Michael/Jess/Stephannie are all hovering around the bottom of my list and until one of them really takes a step in front they could be interchanged for various reasons

[Danni Boatwright]

My rankings didn't change this round, so what i'm going to do is go down my list of contenders (and a few honorable mentions) and discuss what I want to see from their games before the merge if they want to be my ultimate contender picks:

1-Sherri is playing a great social game, and is solidly in the majority alliance on Pukora. She has great relationships outside of that alliance with players like Reynold and Stephannie, as well as a good partnership with steph. With an idol in their pockets, Steph and Sherri can play a little more aggressively imo. What I'd like to see is Sherri taking a more proactive role in her alliance and becoming a driving strategic player. I also want to see how she recovers/deals with adversity if something doesn't go her way, as it has been a pretty lowkey week for that Pukora alliance.

2-Matt has the same expectations as Sherri. As a great social and strategic player, I want to see his ability to adapt and recover. For all we know, this Pukora majority is going to crumble as soon as things get tough. I also would like to see how Matt differentiates himself from Michael/Alexis in the long game, as that trio seems to be in lock step with each other so far. Hoping we have a swap or twist that separates the pukoras and tests their abilities outside of the comfortable alliance structure they find themselves in.

3-Alexis is in the same boat as Matt. I think her biggest hinderance is going to be her partnership with Elizabeth (although for the time being its a huge advantage!). Like Sherri, she has great relationships with plenty of other players outside of her alliance, so I'd like to see a world in which Alexis has to utilize those bonds. Very interested to see what she can do outside of the current alliance

4- Elizabeth is probably the most visible player on the board right now. She has great relationships across tribal lines, and is currently driving the strategy on Te Poto. If it weren't so obvious to everyone else on her tribe, I'd probably have her higher on my list. What I need to see from Elizabeth is the ability to maintain all of her relationships in a way that doesn't come back to bite her when she needs to cut people later in the game. Additionally, I think she needs to cool it a bit and let her allies take the HBIC role for a vote or two, allowing her to maybe step out of the spotlight for a bit. Personally I think it would be smart for her to use that public idol ASAP so it isn't looming over her at the merge, although I understand wanting to have it as a safety net for as long as possible.

5-Michael, like Alexis/Sheri/Matt, needs to show how he deals with adversity in the game. Of everyone on this list, he strikes me as the one who will lose his cool the fastest when things don't go his way. I know he's online all day every day working on his social game, but unlike some of the other players in his alliance, I don't see that manifesting in much trust or deals with his pukora tribemates. Again, I'd like to see what he can do separated from Matt and Alexis to see if hes really that good, or if hes just safely in a majority alliance. It's only F19 so like..... theres time to figure it out lol.

Honorable mentions:

Stephannie - I want to see her take some control. Don't just be an extra number for Sherri, claim some power for yourself!

Jed- Much like Matt/Alexis/Michael, I'd like to see Jed operate without Jess. Can he take the reigns and play from the front? or is his entire game dependent on Jess/Liz making big moves while he watches from the sideline for the pre-merge?

Jess- Another one who I want to see deal with adversity. Can she maintain her cool and work from a non-majority position?

[Danni Boatwright]

I was tempted to wait until after the weekend to post this so I could see who implodes with the swap, but here are my initial post swap contenders. Newsflash, they really didnt change much again and probably wont unless sherri/matt/alexis do something dumb, and they're the least likely to do something dumb!!!

1-Sherri is still in a great position! She has Elizabeth back, Stayed on a tribe with Matt, and still has close relationships with Reynold and Stephannie. Matt's connection with laura should give them a comfortable majority here, and we also know Wardog is not happy about the last vote. With an idol in her pocket, I see Sherri making it through this swap with ease.

2-Matt and Sherri are gonna run this swap tribe. Interested to see if Matt and Laura can reconnect, and if their alliance can sniff out that Allie wants to take them all out! Honestly shes my biggest wildcard on this tribe, and I know Matt /Sherri are at the top of her hit list. I'm also very excited to see Matt play without Michael and Alexis. I think this tribe will help him create his own identity in the game for the viewers.

3-Alexis is in an.... interesting spot. I think on paper this swap looks good for her, but her closest ally on the tribe is Michael and he was just given plenty of options to make a move during this swap. I'm hoping Alexis can put her social skills to work and keep Shamar/Michael close, and I'm excited to see how she interacts with Jess and Missy. Will she let Michael drag her into an alliance with his partner? or is she going to do something about them?

4-Michael is set up to play messy on this tribe and I'm excited for it. He swapped with Alexis from his original alliance and is now on the same tribe as Jess, his partner. I have a feeling that managing both of those relationships is going to be difficult, and hes probably the person most likely to drop off of this list after the weekend. Biggest problem for Michael is going to be keeping his allies safe while also not taking out people Jess is too attached to. Take Aurora for example. She was easily the next person in line to be booted on Pukora, but now that shes back with Jess she'll have someone fighting to keep her in the game. Will Michael prioritize taking her out over appeasing jess? only time will tell.

5- is a tie! I can't decide if I like Elizabeth or Stephannie's spot better on the new pukora tribe. I think both are in a decent position, but my gut tells me only one of them will solidify into the main group running the tribe. Both have preexisting relationships with Matt and Sherri, who will be the power players here. Stephannie and Reynold are close, and Liz just made an alliance with Laura this week. Wardog being a stephannie ally from earlier in the game could give her the edge, but honestly this spot really depends on the social capital the ladies gain this weekend while they get settled into Pukora 3.0.

Honorable mentions:

Jess- I think swapping with Michael was good, but I think this tribe is potentially very dangerous for her, especially if Michael feels like shes getting pushy with him.

Jed-I think Jed is in trouble, but in a manageable position. Liz has other allies on Pukora, but outside of Liz he doesn't have many connections. Plus Wardog isn't happy about the steph boot. Could this put Jed on the chopping block?

Laura/Hope: I like both of their chances in these tribes. both have good relationships with OG Pukora players, and have both made inroads with their swapped Te Poto tribe. Hoping they can manage playing a little bit in the middle here and make it to merge!!

anyways, I'm looking forward to watching this swap play out. I'll update this blog if anything happens that drastically changes my view of the game.

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

I would drop Liz off this list entirely now. I think she's just way too OTT at this point to have a chance at sniffing the end.

[Danni Boatwright]

I would drop Liz off this list entirely now. I think she's just way too OTT at this point to have a chance at sniffing the end.

I've been down that road with Sebastian though. You think that people HAVE to see what they're doing and take their shot, and then because they're scared of the public idol they never take it.

Liz is def on my radar as someone whose game can crash and burn here in the next few rounds, but i want to see how Matt/Sherri deal with that relationship before I take her off my list.

[Tommy]

I would drop Liz off this list entirely now. I think she's just way too OTT at this point to have a chance at sniffing the end.

Do you think its similar to John last season, or a whole different level of OTT altogether. If you think they are in similar spots, do you think Liz can outlast John's performance? I would think no based on the gameplay being better this season, but Liz is also very cunning and with that idol might survive the first time its her turn to go.

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

I would drop Liz off this list entirely now. I think she's just way too OTT at this point to have a chance at sniffing the end.

Do you think its similar to John last season, or a whole different level of OTT altogether. If you think they are in similar spots, do you think Liz can outlast John's performance? I would think no based on the gameplay being better this season, but Liz is also very cunning and with that idol might survive the first time its her turn to go.

So, I think she'll probably make it around as far as John did, but for totally different reasons. I think they're very different players. I'll go into this more in a bit, but I think the public idol will probably let her last longer than she normally probably would, which is the only reason why.

John was a great social player, and very well liked, and one thing that worked both for him and against him was that he had a side. His main alliance was to Poroto, and everyone knew that. The people on Poroto, especially in the beginning of the merge, needed him numbers wise, and other players, such as you and Nick, knew that when you would want to flip, you'd be able to flip to everyone in that crew. That made him incredibly useful, and so even though he was a big jury threat, not someone you'd want to take out early merge. It kind of backfires later in the game, since at that point to make the end John had to either immunity out or hope his alliance made a mistake and wanted him to go to the end with him despite his treat level.

Liz, on the other hand, has alliances with everyone - I don't think anyone knows where she truly stands on a group basis, people just have to feel great about her on an individual level. This lets her control the game in a chess piece kind of way by moving the groups she wants together through her. She's more OTT because in doing that, everyone knows she's sort of doing that, but can't do anything to help it right now (or want to be strung along). Case in point - she's being called Dictator Liz by some of the newbs. She becomes less useful in an early/mid merge scenario because...what really are her numbers? You've got to know that by having everyone, she's going to be the one flipping on others, and not you flipping to her. That kind of player is much more dangerous, and more likely to be taken out early. However, the Public Idol makes it difficult because...if she's in with everyone, all it takes is one person to slip the vote to her (either out of loyalty, or wanting her as a shield) and the plan is blown up. It will make people more hesitant to take a shot at her.

To Danni's point, Ziggy (or Sebastian, in Morocco) kind of played a combination of the two games, which is what made his game so nuts. He had a defined group (the Jellal alliance) that people would want to flip to, while also controlling the other relationships and alliances. He burned a lot of those non-Jellal people in his path to the end, which is what made the jury so bitter, and also bluffed the public idol significantly. He was also much less OTT at this point, no one was saying he was calling the shots until a little bit into the merge.

[Danni Boatwright]

So the weekend, while eventful, left me wanting more mess and a little more shifting in tribal dynamics. I think that a lot of players are starting to realize who is in a good position, and are spending all their time trying to position themselves better than their opposition. I feel like everyone wants to make a move on one of the power players, but none of them have the balls to do it yet. Maybe they'll grow some and make something happen before the merge. Anyways, I digress,

1-Matt takes the number one spot this round, as he is one of the few strategists who isn't showing up on peoples radars yet. Almost every powerful player in the game considers Matt one of their closest allies, and when they run through which other players they'll need to target down the line he is left off the list. I'll be interested to see if anyone starts to pick up on his game as the numbers start to drop. I have to keep reminding myself that we're only at 17, and there is still a lot of time for players to make an impression or blow up their spots. I would expect Matt to maintain his position into merge, and then the real challenge of maintaining relationships and cutting allies begins.

2-Alexis is, in my opinion, playing the most classic "social g.oddess" game right now, and I'm impressed with her ability to juggle so many relationships. Unlike Matt who is playing quite UTR, everyone is aware of Alexis's social prowess, and they're wary of working with her super long term. But as I said with matt, it's only F17, and no one is really planning on making a move on her this early due to her wide web of connections across both tribes.

3-Sherri falls from my #1 spot for the first time! I don't think it's a huge deal, but Jed was really pushing Sherri as a major threat this weekend (She is) and started telling stephannie that Sherri was dropping her name as a target (she isn't). Whether this rumor is true or not, Sherri's game is now out in the ether, and I'm interested to see if she can course correct and keep herself safe. Best case scenario for her would be to cut Jed as he's the one slandering her, but I don't know how realistic that option is. Luckily for her, She's insulated AF on this Pukora tribe, so barring an idol play or complete flip from her allies, I don't see this happening any time soon. The idol in her pocket definitely helps the situation as well.

4-Michael remains at #4 with his OTT login times and strong social connections across tribes, I was really hoping to see his tribe go to tribal council so I could see what kind of influence he had on the group, but alas we didn't get it. I remain firm in my stance that while michaels social game is great and he's playing harder than almost anyone in the cast, he's going to have a difficult time reigning in his manic energy come merge and that could be his downfall. Only time will tell!

5-Stephannie continues to shine on Pukora, and I think she is now solidly in a better position than Elizabeth or any of the other middle of the road players we've discussed in the past few rounds. Solidly aligned with Matt/Sherri/Reynold, Stephannie finally finds herself in a core alliance of a tribe with real influence over the direction of the vote. I'm excited to see what she can do with that power, as I think it will be telling of the trajectory of her merge game. Right now I'm expecting her to go pretty deep based on her alliances with the fans, and I think if she plays her cards right she could outlast them all.

Honorable mentions:

Jess- almost singlehandedly saved her tribe from council by stepping in for Rocker on the challenge he was trying to throw. respect the hustle!

Jed-Idk if his position improved this round, but he's actively challenging the power structure of Pukora. Worried about Liz leaving him behind to work with Sherri/Matt

Elizabeth- Her star is burning too bright to last through the game, and more and more people are mentioning wanting to cut her. I don't see it happening before merge, but the other tribe members are actively working to limit her options moving forward

[Danni Boatwright]

What a vote! Losing Jed was sad, but we finally had a messy scramble that left the lurkers on the edge of their seat. SO many names were thrown out, Missy is claiming credit and potentially tanking her game, and I think the blindside may shatter Liz's alliance with the newbs for good. I havent caught up too much on what people are saying in IMs based on the results of tribal, so if something here is drastically wrong, please @ me.

1-Matt is such an enigma to me. He has been involved in every decision made by the original Pukora alliance, and somehow no ones target seems to be landing on him. Sherri/Alexis/Michael/Shamar/Reynold/Allie/Hope have all been discussed as targets, yet somehow Matt stays off the radar. Now, to be fair it is completely possible this is going to change as Missy is telling everyone she was the mastermind of the Jed boot through her partner Matt, so I'll be curious to see if he remains clean, or if he winds up being on Elizabeth's hit list.

2-Alexis had a lowkey round, and probably is the least likely to face any blowback for the Jed boot, as she has Liz's ear. I'll be curious to see if she tries any damage control or if she'll let her different alliances start to target one another. Either way, she seems to be in a lot of peoples merge plans, and I think she'll be essential to any alliance she decides to move forward with.

3-Stephannie solidified her spot in an alliance and has two SOLID shields in front of her. I think there has been some talk of how great her game is at the moment which is a bit concerning, but i highly doubt she makes the target list before a merge. I'll be looking or her to reconnect with Tai if they're both lucky enough to make merge, and I really want to see how she works with Sherri/Matt's other allies. If she can integrate herself into more people's games, I think she'll be a force to be reckoned with.

4-Sherri continues to drop as more and more people catch on to how well she was playing. I still have faith that she can recover and play a good merge game, but for now she seems to be getting targeted by a vengeful Liz. I'm not familiar enough with Sherri's past games, but I don't doubt that she can do some damage control and get that target moved off of her. I also think she's connected enough that if she does get votes, she can play her idol correctly. Hoping for the best!

5-I have Jess and Michael tied here as they both are on the verge of doing a little too much, and I'm interested to see how it works out for them. Michaels bid for the immunity necklace last night seemed reckless, especially given that they were not throwing the challenge (which is a good thing!!!!!!!). I don't love him drawing attention to himself unnecessarily, but I also cant fault him for wanting Tai to be an option. Jess, on the other hand, seems to be back in a good spot out front, but shes considering throwing and cutting Missy as revenge for Jed. I think losing Jed is a huge hit to her game, but I don't know if taking out Missy is the proper response (Mostly because I never know what Missy is going to do next lol.) I think Either one of them could fit in here, I'm just worried that their inability to relax will screw them over in the long run.

Honorable Mentions:

Reynold- I'm happy he has found a place in his tribe and is taking a more active approach in strategy. He may be a little delusional about how much control he has, but his side relationships with Allie and Wardog could prove very useful in the future.

WTF:

Missy- honestly what would compel you to go to Jess and take credit for taking out one of her closest allies in the game? I understand being delusional and thinking you had some kind of hand in the outcome, that happens all the time. But bragging to someone you need to work with about blindsiding their allies? thats some 5D chess shit that I just don't understand.

[Cochran]

Surprised missy isn't in your top 5 after organizing that Jed boot

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

Michael seems like he basically has gotten no flak for the immunity play. It was stupid to waste the coins, but I think the aftermath of the vote has basically wiped that from memory. He is overplaying in his confessional, but honestly socially he hides it well and he seems pretty well insulated by a number of people.

Matt, Sherri and Wardog are basically the only people going for the idol on Pukaroa. Odds are one of them will end up with it and that will be very powerful.

Jess has just been too much of a rollercoaster to put her as a contender here. She has some great moments (the initial Te Poto tribe, putting the team on her back challenge wise, bonding with Hope/Michael) but some really bad reads as well (her first confessional of this round shows she has no idea of the dynamics between the newbies). Her aggression is making people want to ride with her but I see her solidly as finishing around...10th or so, getting flipped on by the players making the endgame.

[Joaquin Souberbielle]

I'm very curious to see how Wardog and Reynold work together here. Wardog has had some low moments, so not really justified putting him here yet, but recently he has been playing *very* well, solidifying close bonds with Stephannie, Matt and Reynold and making the right, if not obvious move of just leaving Jess/Elizabeth behind after being blindsided. Reynold has stepped up a lot as of late and was in the war room for making the decision last night, even if he didn't get his way with Elizabeth. He seems to be getting more aggressive but isn't a target for it.